What are the risks and unknowns?

I have mentioned in earlier articles, I think the Nats should have a good season.  They have organizational depth in many positions.  For example, they have 6 major league ready outfielders, 4 with + defense.  They have depth in the infield; they have depth with the relievers. 

But, there are vulnerabilities.    Last year, for example, using WAR as the metric, injuries cost the Nats a lot.  We can only speculate how much, but if at career numbers, 17 WAR was lost to injuries.  That is beyond unlucky.  With 17 more wins, the Nats are a 100 win team.  Of course, every team has injuries at some point.  This year, though, it seems we are deeper than last year.  For infield protection, there is have Difo and Turner; outfield has den Decker at Taylor. Pitching, well Giolito soon.  On a position basis, here is how I see the risks: 

For the outfield, Michael A Taylor can play defense with anyone  -- defensively, he is better than Werth, Revere, but probably not Harper.  The problem will be if Harper gets hurt for any length of time, his offense cannot be replaced.  In terms of wins, each week with Harper out will cost us ½ win.   MAT and den Decker replacing

Werth and Revere with be about .1 win per week, or two wins over the season. 

Same with pitching:  We don’t know how Giolito will go, but I expect he would good, but Stras and Scherzer are each about +.2 win better each start than a generic replacement .  Ross, Tanner or Lefty Gio would not be the end of the world; I expect Ross or Tanner will be replaced in June by Giolito anyway.

Infield, the risk is losing Rendon.  Each week  Rendon is down will cost us about .3 wins – last year, he missed 13 weeks, which cost us about 4 wins; we still would not have made the playoffs, but it would have been close.  I have seen enough from Rendon to think he is back at 100%. 

I do not know how much of a difference the LASIK will make for Ramos.  If they help him, that will be a big deal.  Otherwise, meh.

The other things that remain uncertain is Zimmerman and Werth:  do they revert to career means, or was last year the new baseline?

When I look at the WAR predictions, they show no respect for Zim or Werth:  Total WAR for them is 2.3.  Back when healthy, Zim’s WAR was 3.5 or so; Werth’s was 5.0.  That 8.5 wins we lost last year; 8.5 and we were in the playoffs.  8.5 is almost like losing Bryce Harper.  From what I am seeing this spring, I feel good about Zimmerman – I am seeing him play better than he has since 2010 when he hit .307 with 25 HR.    I will write about these two separately.

In summary: 

Harper, Rendon Scherzer and Stra need to stay on the field.  It would be good if Werth and Zim returned to career norms.  If all that happens, good things will happen.  We can survive Werth and Zim continuing to slip.