Three game in, maybe I was too optimistic...

Three games into the season, we are 2-1, having swept Atlanta and lost the home opener against the Marlins.  I have to keep telling myself it is early…it is early…it is early.  But, there are a few things I do not like: Revere is injured.  MAT is not a leadoff hitter, but he leads off.  And Werth looks lost.   The bullpen tried to implode in the 7^th inning in game 1 (they did, but recovered). 

I do not think Dusty knows the team yet, hence MAT at leadoff.  I am not sure who I would leadoff, maybe Espy, who is looking great.

My happy surprises:  Murphy.  I love him already.  He is awesome! 

Zim and Ramos look good; Rendon is hitting the ball well (but at people). 

Defense look pretty good; one error. 

Pitching?  Happy with Scherzer and Strss; Roark is concerning.  But, even in opening day, the god awful rain-delayed game, the Marlins did not really hit the ball hard.  They placed the ball well.  So, maybe I am over reacting to Roark.

Based on what I see so far, I am taking away LF WAR:  that costs the Nats 5 wins on the season.  This drops my projection from 96 to 91 wins, or (with the uncertainty), 85-97 wins.   At the low end, they probably do not make post season.  Assuming a Gaussian distribution, the below figure gives the expected win total.  Murphy’s total might shift this to the right a little…I like what I am seeing.  I pegged him at 2 WAR, and I am thinking 4 WAR. 

Bottom line:  70% chance of making the post season.  Probably 50% of the division. Note that the wins-losses projections where 2.1-.9, so we are doing as expected.

I feel sorry for the Cubbies.  They lost a key element for the season.  

Oh, and the magic number is 151.