In the first ten games, almost everything has gone
right. In my early posts, I talked about
how easy the schedule is at the beginning.
But, even with easy schedules, expectations were through 10. Six of the ten where against the Braves. But, the Braves are .500 against other teams;
the Phillies are .500 against everyone else.
The Nats have won with come from behind in the 7th, 8th
and 9th; they have won in extra innings; they won with big leads
early. They won with strong starts,
(6/10 games were what I considered strong starts). They won with the bullpen. They won with long ball and small ball. Like the squirrel, things are looking up:
So, how good are the Nats?
It is too early to predict, but that never stopped me. I looked at the
numbers: WAR, adjusted for in year
performance, coupled with uncertainty.
Right now, the Nats are looking like a 99 win team. And that is without significant production
from CF, LF or SS positions (though the outfields are starting to heat up). In the minors, Turner is eating up the
International League, hitting .500 with a 1.34 OPS. Only negative is two errors. Giolito does not have enough numbers to
project. Turner will improve the SS offense,
but will degrade the defense.
How are the former Nats doing?
Player WAR Replacement WAR
Desi -0.6
Espy -0.3
Span
0.0 Revere 0.0 (hurt opening day)
Zimmermann 0.3 Roark 0.1
Fister 0.0 Ross 0.4
Escobar 0.7 Murphy 0.9
Storen -0.1 Kelley \0.2
Net: +1.0 improvement over 10 games! The changes were like adding another Bryce
Harper to the team, while reducing the payroll.
Rizzo knows what he is doing!
Here is my season projections: Upped the win total to 93-105 games (90%
confidence); Mets look like 80-92 games
right now (90% confidence)….or graphically:
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