First 4 weeks should be easy; gut check late April to Mid May.

How will the season go?  Well, Ask me in October, if you want me to be accurate.

However, I have looked through the first half of the season.  I see periods where the Nats will be very strong – we are playing weak opponents.  And there are really hard stretches.  For example, from April 29 – May 8, the Nats have a gut-check road drip:  St. Louis, KC, and Cubs.  

However, the first decent team the Nats play will be the April 22, with a two game series against the Twins, but they follow that with the Phillies.

At this point in the season, the Nats should be “favored” in all of the games.    The Nats are not going to be 22-0 , but they could be 15-7, or maybe 17-5.  (14-8 probably has them on a 95 win pace)

Then, there is the Gut Check.  Assuming no major injuries, this will be the trip that tells us about the team --  ten games against playoff teams on the road:  3 in Saint Louis, 3 in KC, and 4 in the North Side of Chicago.  If the Nats are 5-5 on the road trip, be ecstatic.  That means the Nats could be a 100-win team.  At 4-6 , I will be content.  At that point, I will be happy 18-14.   20-12 would be awesome.    Then, we have Tigers at home; they are a mystery team.

That gets us through the first 5 weeks of the season.

The Mets?  I am not going to look at them in detail.  But, they do not have a hard stretch until August.  The have a few tough series early:  Royals (away), Indians (away), Giants  (home) and Dodgers (away).  Their early schedule is slightly harder than the Nats.  But, they are not in a row.

Figure by the 15^th of May both teams have had tough series and easy series, and comparable schedules.  We should have a good idea on the Nat’s season.  Today, we potentially are a 162-0 team.

Here is my season outlook in terms of the win percentage for the season and the last 10 days.

My estimate on the record and streaks based on opponents.