An off day two months into the season is a good day to be
retrospective. First of all , the Nats
are winning. They may be the second best
team in the baseball, and probably in the NL; the cubs are (right now) a much
better team. The Nats are 33-21; in past
years on June 2, the record was:
Year Record
Finish
2015 29-23
83-79 (2nd)
2014 28-28
96-66 (1st)
2013 28-29
86-76 (2nd)
2012 30-21
98-64 (1st)
The Nat’s opponents, excluding games against the Nationals have a winning record (0.508),
which means that the team has not had an easy schedule.
The team is .500 or above against all but the Cubs. The Cubs series was at the end of a long,
tough, road trip, and frankly the Cubs are good; they swept the Nats. The Nats play them soon in DC. Should be an interesting series. It is worth noting if you subtract the
Cubs/Nats series, the Nats would have similar record (33-17) than the Cubs
(32-15). So, are the Cubs better than
the Nats (Yes), and did they catch us at a lucky time (probably).
So the Nats Record against the really bad teams (Braves,
Twins) is perfect. Against the Cubs,
0-4; everyone else: 0.594; those teams have an overall record of 140-124
(.532).
Assuming these trends continue, the Nats have 20 games left
against terrible teams, 85 against
decent teams, and 3 vs. the Cubs.
Current trends would mean the Nats end up with 33+20+85*.594 wins, or
103 wins. That is not going to happen.
The lousy teams will win some games against us: luck was involved
in at least one win: the 16 inning game
vs. the Twins….Lets assume a winning percentage of .7 against them. And the Nats should take at least one from
the Cubs. That places the Nats at 98
wins.
Interestingly, when I looked at the schedule at the
beginning of the season, applying estimates of win probabilities for each game,
I had the Nats at 96 wins. I have been
tracking that against actual performance, and the Nats are out performing my
predictions by 2 games, or a 98 win season.
But, at some point, the season will not be successful unless
someone (Nats, or WC winner – Mets/Pirates?) beats the Cubs.
