Only 3 un-earned runs so far -- that is good defense.

The Nat’s are playing good defense.  So far,  the Nat’s have given up 3 unearned runs; the unearned runs have not cost the team any games.  At this time last year, the team had something like 16 unearned runs, costing us 3.5 games (0.5 was given 1.5 times when without the unearned runs, the team would have ben tied).   Last year, on this day, the team was 7-9; without the unearned runs, they would have been 10.5-5.5, but having played a tougher schedule (series against the Mets, Red Sox, and Cardinals. 

I could make the case that without the errors, the team could have been better than this year’s team.   However, they had the errors; that was part of last year’s DNA.

Instead of 7-9 of April 23, the Nat’s are 13-4.

Last year, the best record vs.  .500 was 10 games up around the AllStar game.   This year, the team is 9 games above .500 at 17 games. 

However, baseball is a streaky game; last year they had a streak of 20-5,   But, I think they are a better team than last year. 

At this point, through basically three weeks of the season,  they remain in First Place.

Week 1 they were 2-1.  Week 2, they were 7-0; week three, 4-3.  Are they cooling off? I don’t know.  They have a total of 4 loses:  2 Roark losses, 1 bad start by Scherzer and a blown save.  Everyone else has been lights out.  ERA, Scherzer is 4.32, but mostly because of the last start. Roark is 2.63; Gio 1.42; Stras 1.25 and Ross 0.54.  (not bad for the #5 starter). 

The only other high ERA is from Papelbon, who has 3 ERs, two in one outing (BS).  So, I am not too worried about that.

How is the team relative to projections?  My preseason projections, which was 96 wins, had the Nats at 11-6 right now.  Instead, the Nats are 13-4.

Werth and Espinoza are both hitting better; Werth has a positive WAR and Espy has a zero WAR for the week.  If they can hit, they this lineup will be with only 1 hole: Michael A. Taylor.  Heck, the pitchers are doing better than him.

Overall, if the team continues to play as is, 100 wins is a reasonable target.  (They will not continue to win at a 123 win pace, though). Baring significant injuries, we will have October Baseball (at least with the Marlins on Oct 1 & 2).

I love it when things start HOT

In the first ten games, almost everything has gone right.  In my early posts, I talked about how easy the schedule is at the beginning.  But, even with easy schedules, expectations were through 10.  Six of the ten where against the Braves.  But, the Braves are .500 against other teams; the Phillies are .500 against everyone else.  The Nats have won with come from behind in the 7^th, 8^th and 9^th; they have won in extra innings; they won with big leads early.   They won with strong starts, (6/10 games were what I considered strong starts).  They won with the bullpen.  They won with long ball and small ball.   Like the squirrel, things are looking up:

So, how good are the Nats?  It is too early to predict, but that never stopped me. I looked at the numbers:  WAR, adjusted for in year performance, coupled with uncertainty.  Right now, the Nats are looking like a 99 win team.  And that is without significant production from CF, LF or SS positions (though the outfields are starting to heat up).   In the minors, Turner is eating up the International League, hitting .500 with a 1.34 OPS.  Only negative is two errors.  Giolito does not have enough numbers to project.  Turner will improve the SS offense, but will degrade the defense. 

How are the former Nats doing? 

Player                 WAR        Replacement   WAR

Desi                    -0.6           Espy                  -0.3

Span                    0.0           Revere               0.0 (hurt opening day)

Zimmermann      0.3           Roark                 0.1

Fister                   0.0           Ross                  0.4

Escobar               0.7           Murphy             0.9

Storen                 -0.1           Kelley               \0.2

Net: +1.0 improvement over 10 games!  The changes were like adding another Bryce Harper to the team, while reducing the payroll.  Rizzo knows what he is doing!

Here is my season projections:  Upped the win total to 93-105 games (90% confidence);  Mets look like 80-92 games right now (90% confidence)….or graphically:

How good are we (at 7-1)?

The National's are 7-1; best start in franchise history; three games up and heading north to play the second place Phillies...that is a phrase I did not expect to write.

Thing is, we can say with confidence, that the Nat's are better than the Braves.  6 of the 7 wins are over the Braves.  The Nat's will almost certainly win the season series over the braves:  they need to go 4-9 against them for the rest of the season.

The Mets lost series to the Marlins and Phillies, and split with the Royals.  I *think* the Nationals are better than the Phillies, I expect the Nat's to win 2 of 3 in Philly, then split with the Marlins, though it would not surprise me to beat them three games to one; four game sweeps are unusual.

We have now seen each pitcher.  For the starters, Strasburg is a stud, throwing 100 pitches in 6 2/3 innings while *sick*, only giving up 2 runs.  Scherzer is Scherzer.  Ross was most surprising; based on spring training, I was dreading his start, but he was wonderful.  He pitches tonight.  We can see if it is a fluke.  Roark?  Well, in his two games, he was similar in pitching but with different results.  He is not a strike out kind of guy; rather, he is pitch to contact.  In Game on, balls found gaps whereas in game 2 for him, they did not.  Gio showed something I had never seen from him:  mental toughness.   I like the rotation; it seems to be better than expected (though it could be Braves hitters are bad).

As for the lineup:

1. MAT is lost as a leadoff hitter.  He needs to learn to recognize and layoff off speed junk;  
2. Rendon is hitting hard, but at people.  "Tony 2 Bags" will be producing soon.  
3. Harper?  He has a flair for the dramatic.  100th home run an stadium breaking Grand Slam.  We     all knew it was coming.
4. Zimmerman offers great protection for Harper.  He is hitting the ball hard, but not getting lucky
5. Murphy has been a pleasant surprise.  Right now he is our MVP (sorry Bryce).  
6. Werth is finding is swing.  He is getting better at bats, which means he is seeing the ball.  
7. Ramos is now the poster child for LASIK.  
8. Espy is there for defense
9. Pitchers have gotten on base; Gio is batting 1.000.

Defense:
Well, 2 errors in 8 games is good.  Much improved.  One error was trying to throw out a stolen base, the other was SS booting a ball.  One SS error in the first 8 games; last year at this time the Nationals had 6 errors.  Opposing teams have stolen three bases and been caught 4 times.  Defense has been SOLID.

Outlook:  They are out-performing my estimates:  I had them at 5-3 right now, not 7-1.   The Nats would dominate if we could play the Braves for 162 games.

The real test begins in about two weeks when the Nats head out to Saint Louis, KC and Chicago.

How a lineup works....

Yesterday (4/12/2016), in the eighth inning, we saw how a line up works.  Steven Drew came in to bat with no one on and one out.  Score was 0-0.  Drew has some Pop, and traditionally a .250 hitter who does not walk a lot.  However, he got a "bloop" hit.

Now, the top of the order was up.  MAT came in, and (luckily) made contact, in what turned out to be a swinging bunt.  Drew is fast, so there was no play at second, but they got MAT out at first.

Anthony Rendon is up...a good hitter often known as Tony two-bags because of his propensity for hard line drives.  He is a good hitter, and after him is Bryce Harper, the reigning MVP and possibly the best hitter in baseball.  Man on second, two outs, they need to get Rendon out.  But, they can't risk contact because contact means a 1-0 lead for the Nats (probably).  So, they are playing for the strikeout by painting the corner.  In a 2-2 count, they throw the Curve ball, hoping for the swing an miss, but Anthony holds up.  Full count.  They need to get the strike.  A called strike is risky:  it has to be perfectly placed because Rendon is a good hitter, and he does not feel stress.  They try a two seam fast ball; Anthony starts his swing, sees the spin, and checks his swing.  It is called a ball...and First base umpire rules it is not a swing. Walking Anthony is not the end of the world.

Now, man on first and second.  And Bryce Harper is in the batter box.  Third base is open.  However, hitting behind Bryce is Ryan Zimmerman, who is also a very good hitter, and known as an RBI man.  An IBB on Bryce to load the bases would be a huge insult on Ryan, and historically, that does not end well for the opposing teams (walking if first was open would not be an insult).  So, because Ryan is protecting Bryce, Atlanta went right after Bryce with a outside pitch.  Bryce makes contact, hits it the other way, the left fielder lays out, but just misses it.  Two runs score, Bryce is on second.  Nats win 2-1.

If Steven Drew did not get the hit, if MAT did not advance the runner, Rendon does not come up.  If Rendon did not successfully check the swing, Bryce does not get up.  If Bryce was protected by a lessor batter, they walk him...But, the lineup worked as designed.

I am eating my hat....Thanks JW!

Yesterday,  I wrote about how I was concerned that Werth was not looking.  Today, I have to say, he looks comfortable.  Not just because he had the go ahead RBI, but even in his other at bats, he looked better.  I am not ready to give back the projected WAR -- not all of it anyway.  But, he showed is is still the professional baseball player.  I I was wrong.  Werth had good at bats today, even when out.  And Bases Loaded, tie score, the bloop hit.  He knows what to do in the situation.   I am so happy to be wrong.  As punishment, I eat my hat.

The hat had dog fur on it.  Ugh....


And Ross, who I was worried about after Sprintg Training, was a stud.  I will adjust my projections again after open more trip through the rotation.  Right now, he is looking as he was in the first starts last year (not when he was tired down the stretch).

The save was a bit ugly, put it was a save.
The Mets lost; coupled with the Nats win, the Nats are 1.5 games up.

By the numbers, tomorrows probability of winning the division at fangraphs should be higher for the Nats than the Mets.

Three game in, maybe I was too optimistic...

Three games into the season, we are 2-1, having swept Atlanta and lost the home opener against the Marlins.  I have to keep telling myself it is early…it is early…it is early.  But, there are a few things I do not like: Revere is injured.  MAT is not a leadoff hitter, but he leads off.  And Werth looks lost.   The bullpen tried to implode in the 7^th inning in game 1 (they did, but recovered). 

I do not think Dusty knows the team yet, hence MAT at leadoff.  I am not sure who I would leadoff, maybe Espy, who is looking great.

My happy surprises:  Murphy.  I love him already.  He is awesome! 

Zim and Ramos look good; Rendon is hitting the ball well (but at people). 

Defense look pretty good; one error. 

Pitching?  Happy with Scherzer and Strss; Roark is concerning.  But, even in opening day, the god awful rain-delayed game, the Marlins did not really hit the ball hard.  They placed the ball well.  So, maybe I am over reacting to Roark.

Based on what I see so far, I am taking away LF WAR:  that costs the Nats 5 wins on the season.  This drops my projection from 96 to 91 wins, or (with the uncertainty), 85-97 wins.   At the low end, they probably do not make post season.  Assuming a Gaussian distribution, the below figure gives the expected win total.  Murphy’s total might shift this to the right a little…I like what I am seeing.  I pegged him at 2 WAR, and I am thinking 4 WAR. 

Bottom line:  70% chance of making the post season.  Probably 50% of the division. Note that the wins-losses projections where 2.1-.9, so we are doing as expected.

I feel sorry for the Cubbies.  They lost a key element for the season.  

Oh, and the magic number is 151.

What are the risks and unknowns?

I have mentioned in earlier articles, I think the Nats should have a good season.  They have organizational depth in many positions.  For example, they have 6 major league ready outfielders, 4 with + defense.  They have depth in the infield; they have depth with the relievers. 

But, there are vulnerabilities.    Last year, for example, using WAR as the metric, injuries cost the Nats a lot.  We can only speculate how much, but if at career numbers, 17 WAR was lost to injuries.  That is beyond unlucky.  With 17 more wins, the Nats are a 100 win team.  Of course, every team has injuries at some point.  This year, though, it seems we are deeper than last year.  For infield protection, there is have Difo and Turner; outfield has den Decker at Taylor. Pitching, well Giolito soon.  On a position basis, here is how I see the risks: 

For the outfield, Michael A Taylor can play defense with anyone  -- defensively, he is better than Werth, Revere, but probably not Harper.  The problem will be if Harper gets hurt for any length of time, his offense cannot be replaced.  In terms of wins, each week with Harper out will cost us ½ win.   MAT and den Decker replacing

Werth and Revere with be about .1 win per week, or two wins over the season. 

Same with pitching:  We don’t know how Giolito will go, but I expect he would good, but Stras and Scherzer are each about +.2 win better each start than a generic replacement .  Ross, Tanner or Lefty Gio would not be the end of the world; I expect Ross or Tanner will be replaced in June by Giolito anyway.

Infield, the risk is losing Rendon.  Each week  Rendon is down will cost us about .3 wins – last year, he missed 13 weeks, which cost us about 4 wins; we still would not have made the playoffs, but it would have been close.  I have seen enough from Rendon to think he is back at 100%. 

I do not know how much of a difference the LASIK will make for Ramos.  If they help him, that will be a big deal.  Otherwise, meh.

The other things that remain uncertain is Zimmerman and Werth:  do they revert to career means, or was last year the new baseline?

When I look at the WAR predictions, they show no respect for Zim or Werth:  Total WAR for them is 2.3.  Back when healthy, Zim’s WAR was 3.5 or so; Werth’s was 5.0.  That 8.5 wins we lost last year; 8.5 and we were in the playoffs.  8.5 is almost like losing Bryce Harper.  From what I am seeing this spring, I feel good about Zimmerman – I am seeing him play better than he has since 2010 when he hit .307 with 25 HR.    I will write about these two separately.

In summary: 

Harper, Rendon Scherzer and Stra need to stay on the field.  It would be good if Werth and Zim returned to career norms.  If all that happens, good things will happen.  We can survive Werth and Zim continuing to slip.