First Blog: Thoughts on the 2016 Nats season: 90- 102 wins

Spring training is over.  The Nats had a successful spring.  Yes, they had the best record in the Grapefruit league (which, with $4.69 cents will get you a triple 16 latte at Caffe Amouri), but more importantly, there are no significant injuries.  A year ago now, Werth, Rendon, Span, and Strasburg had some level of injury.  The only player down now is Arron Barrett, who had Tommy John last year.

Winning spring training is an intangible: it feels better to win than not win, and it gives a sense of optimism.

Better than the outcomes was the paucity of errors.  For the most part, solid defense was seen in the later part of the spring.  Sure, Zimmerman tripped over his feet yesterday, but...it wasn't an error.

Now for my predictions, but first, I was to talk about my methodology.  I have last years outcome,
and I will look at individual players in terms of WAR.  Last year, because of injuries, Strasburg, Werth, Rendon, Zimmerman and Span under performed.  Desmond underperformed, but we don't know why (he had an excellent spring for the Rangers:  Good Luck Ian).

My take on pitchers, is they will be about the same.  Losing Zimmermann is a negative, but Strasburg is healthy, which will offset it.  It is possible that the new pitching coach will add a win.  So, I am going to go -4 to +5 from pitching.

First base:  I can not see anyway it will be worse.  If Zimm is healthy all season, +4; otherwise 0.  because of statistics, I am going 2 to +4.

Second:  Also underperformed last year.  Murphy is not Rendon.... WAR:  -1 to 1 relative to last year.

Shortstop:  Normally, going from Desi to Espy would be a huge drop, but defensively, Espy is a huge upgrade; offensive, is is like Desi last year.  Last year, Desi was worse than replacement, though.  If Espy really sucks, Trey will come up.  I figure 1-3.

3rd base:  Huge upgrade:  Escobar to Rendon is +2 defensively, potentially +1 offensively.  I am guessing overall, +2 to +5.

LF:  Healthy Werth is an offensive upgrade, but defensive liability.  MAT has another year under his belt...I am giving 1 to 3  on LF.

CF:  Revere is a downgrade relative to a young, healthy Span.  Neutral to MAT.  -1 to 1

RF:  I can not imagine Harper doing significantly better.  If he is healthy all year (I will assume that), he will be -3 to 1.  (minus 3 gives him 6.9 war, which may be MVP quality; last year, he carried the team.  However, typically players improve from 22 to 23 so maybe I am being conservative).

C:  Wilson with LASIK is much better than blind Wilson.  +2 to + 4

----
So where does that leave us?

+13 wins with 6 wins uncertainty.

or,  90-102 wins.